Every time James Bond dodges a bullet in this universe, he dies a little on average

People seem to think that taking a risk and not getting the worst result is success. But if it was a real risk, in the long term that will even out (or catch up to you).

James Bond has been shot at hundreds of times, and even if only by chance, one of those is eventually going to kill him. He already has been quite lucky - in most alternate universes, he is probably already dead.

(Although he does seem to be protected by some kind of luck or misdirection skills... it might be a better strategy for goons to close their eyes and shoot, rather than aim - that way Bond's actions have less effect, and the goon gets a guaranteed fair (but low) chance of hitting him - over the long term this is better for goons than every single one failing absolutely.)

It's similar to rock-paper-scissors competitions; James Bond is so good at predicting the shooting strategy of goons that he always dodges. So they should attempt to shoot randomly and not even look at him; but he can probably even guess what they are going to consider a random type of shot, so maybe there's no hope for them.

Just like in poker, EV poker doesn't change play style (for cash games) at all.

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11/4/2018 4:35:31 PM
Contact: ernestfrench@gmail.com
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